Vermont Department of Employment and TrainingVermont Unemployment Press ReleaseJune 17, 2005For Immediate ReleaseContact: Michael Griffin, 802-828-4153E-Mail: email@example.com(link sends e-mail)Vermont Labor Force Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted) May 2005 April 2005 May 2004Total Labor Force 351,600 352,300 352,900 Employment 340,700 340,700 340,300 Unemployment 10,900 11,600 12,600 Rate (%) 3.1 3.3 3.6Montpelier — The Department of Employment and Training announced today that theseasonally adjusted unemployment rate for May was 3.1 percent, down two tenths of apercentage point from the revised April estimate. The change from last month was notstatistically significant.Unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 1.7 percent inHartford to 3.9 percent in Rutland and Springfield. Labor market area rates are notseasonally adjusted; for comparison, the unadjusted rate for Vermont was 3.0 percent.”Vermont’s unemployment rate dropped once more to its lowest level in four years,” saidPatricia A. McDonald, Commissioner of the Department of Employment and Training.”May’s early season job gains in leisure and construction were particularly encouragingsigns for the labor market.”The number of seasonally adjusted jobs grew by 2,200 in May, a considerably larger gaincompared to the changes from recent months. The largest increase came from the leisureand hospitality industries, which bounced back from a loss in April. Other small gainsresulted from growth in the construction industry, professional and business services andgovernment services. Expansion may also have occurred in sectors of the economywhich are not published. Additionally, the figure for total seasonally adjusted jobs mayhave slightly overstated actual gains.Before seasonal adjustment, total nonfarm employment grew by almost 4,000 jobs. Thegains occurred in the industries that usually expand as the summer months approach.Construction showed the largest growth, adding jobs at a rate on par with prior years.Entertainment, recreation and the food service industries began their usual summer hiringwith fairly typical gains. Professional and business services also experienced increasesrelated to seasonal hiring. Within the professional and business sector, administrativesupport led the growth with employment increases primarily from traffic control andlandscaping companies. Other job gains occurred in retail, manufacturing, and healthcare. Hotels, motels and other lodging experienced employment losses with the wrap-upof the winter tourism season. State and private colleges also showed a drop in jobstypical for the end of the academic year.Total nonfarm employment increased 1.6% over the last twelve months. The annualgrowth rate was slightly stronger than it was in April.
…says “baseline” vs “aggressive” spending reduces chance of Dutch disease…urges equal levels of saving, spending during first 5 yearsThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recommended that Guyana adopt a “baseline” approach when it comes to spending oil money on public investments, in order to avoid the dreaded “Dutch disease” that is known to plague oil rich economies. According to the fund, in its most recent report on Guyana, using an “aggressive” instead of a “baseline” spending model can have several negative macro-economic effects on a country that already has an infrastructure and development deficit.“Dutch disease is lower under the “baseline’” approach,” the IMF team said. “Rapid growth in public investment spending in the “aggressive” approach would dampen private consumption and investment significantly due to large crowding out effects”.The report added, in addition to higher real interest rates from large public sector borrowing in the short term, massive front-loading of Government investment spending would lead to higher inflation and more pronounced appreciation of the real exchange rate, adversely affecting export competitiveness.According to the report, such spending would result in reduced output from the trading sector and, thus, worsens the “Dutch disease” effects. The report noted that the “baseline” approach reduces the chance for the crowding out of private buying. In addition, the report warned, the effect of investment from the increased Government spending is dampened.“Despite the relatively lower amount of public investment spending to improve infrastructure compared to the “aggressive” approach, non-oil output growth in the medium- and longer-term are higher as public investment reinforces private investment, thus, minimising the effects of ‘Dutch disease’ and crowding out of private demand,” the report noted.SpendingDespite this, however, the fund acknowledged that large transfers of oil money to the budget are expected over the next five years, as well as accumulated savings in the Natural Resource Fund (NRF). It, therefore, urged equal spending and saving during the first five years as the best option in Guyana’s context to help prevent the Dutch disease.Based on projected oil prices and production, it noted that transfers to the budget will amount to a cumulative 32.7 per cent of non-oil GDP (Gross Domestic Product) over 2020 to 2024 and the balance in the NRF would amount to 30.1 per cent of non-oil GDP by end-2024. This presents an opportunity to scale-up capital and current spending to address infrastructure gaps and human development needs”.“Staff views the implied roughly equal shares of saving versus spending of the oil income during the first five years as appropriate—it should contain “Dutch disease” effects. Staff emphasised the need to continuously monitor the economy’s absorptive capacity and to stand ready to scale back spending if signs of overheating or spending inefficiencies emerge”.The Natural Resources Fund (NRF) Act remains the only piece of legislation specifically for the oil and gas sector that fully ventilated and passed. It creates the NRF fund and oversight committee, which will save and oversee oil revenue for Guyana.Finance Minister Winston Jordan has previously said that oil revenue, when it arrives, will be divided into three parts: monies to go into the budget, money to be held as a buffer and monies to be saved for future generations. However, he has sought to downplay the amount of money Guyana will earn in 2020.The report also notes that recommendations from past reports had included warning Guyana to keep its fiscal deficit reduced, make public investment implementation more efficient and to avoid non-concessional loans from external organisations.“The authorities’ policies have been broadly consistent with these recommendations,” the report observed. “In addition, the authorities continue to benefit from Technical Assistance (TA) delivered by the Fund and other providers”.